Is Your Attribution Model Missing 50% of Your ROI?

Campaigns for demand generation—like YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook video ads—get cut all the time. Not because they don’t work, but because their impact shows up in the wrong place. If you’re only tracking what your tools can directly pin to a click, you’re missing some of your most valuable ROI—and probably making budget calls that hurt growth.

I’ve seen this mistake too many times to count.

A company runs YouTube or Meta video campaigns. Nothing obvious happens. Clicks don’t skyrocket. Conversions don’t flood in. So the CMO kills the budget—or worse, the CEO demands to know why the “high funnel stuff” isn’t pulling its weight.

But a week or two later?
Branded search goes up. Direct traffic climbs. App installs increase. Revenue ticks higher—but attribution doesn’t connect the dots.

That’s the Halo Effect—and it’s quietly driving way more results than most teams realize.

If you’re not accounting for this effect, you’re not just missing performance. You’re handing ROI over to the wrong channels, and making strategy calls based on incomplete data.

I’ve had to walk more than a few founders through this. Once they see the full picture, their mindset shifts—and so do their results.

What the Halo Effect Actually Is

Demand-gen campaigns don’t always trigger instant clicks. That’s not the point. Their job is to build awareness, trigger intent, and plant a mental flag. So when that prospect is ready to act, they Google your brand name, visit your site directly, or download your app.

And guess what? That conversion gets credited to “organic,” “direct,” or worse—goes completely unattributed. The campaign that actually caused it? Invisible in the report.

• Branded search (both paid and organic)
• Direct traffic spikes
• View-through conversions
• Mobile app install lifts

These aren’t theoretical. They’re real. I’ve seen:

• +240% branded search lift from YouTube for a SaaS company
• +217% search clicks and –10.5% CPA in e-comm with YouTube + Discovery
• ~20% lift in organic installs from mobile UA campaigns

Why Attribution Gets It Wrong

Let’s face it: most attribution models are stuck in the “click = credit” mindset.

• No clicks = no credit
• View-throughs are ignored
• Short attribution windows miss long B2B sales cycles
• Conversions get misattributed to other sources

This misalignment costs companies millions. I’ve seen teams cut top-performing channels because the data didn’t give them credit.

Where This Happens Most

• YouTube video
• Instagram/Facebook video
• Native video (Taboola, Outbrain)
• Display & programmatic ads
• Mobile UA campaigns

These platforms don’t just “warm up” audiences—they trigger intent. But unless you’re measuring the ripple, it looks like nothing happened.

How to See the Full Picture

Let me be straight with you: you’re never going to see the entire picture. Not perfectly. Not completely.

All the tools in the world can only guide us—they can’t tell the whole story. I’ve accepted that, and you should too.

That said, here’s how to sharpen your view:

• GA4 Assisted Conversions – See who helped, not just who closed.
• View-through tracking – Google Ads, Meta, DSPs, Microsoft Ads.
• Lift studies – YouTube Brand Lift, Meta Conversion Lift.
• Geo-based incrementality – Compare exposed vs. holdout regions.
• AppsFlyer or Adjust – Measure organic uplift on mobile.
• Marketing mix modeling – Understand long-term, cross-channel impact.

Extend your attribution windows. If your sales cycle is 21 days and you’re tracking 7, you’re blind.

And here’s the real move:
Build a model that attributes a percentage of unattributed traffic—branded search, direct, and organic—to demand-gen campaigns. Whether it’s a fixed multiplier or a custom formula, it’s your best shot at getting closer to the truth.

Adjust for the ROI You’re Not Seeing

If you rely only on what platforms report, you’re underreporting reality.

Instead, adjust proactively:

• Branded search up 30% after YouTube? Use a 1.3× multiplier.
• App installs up 20% with no clicks? That’s halo—count it.

This is where modeling matters. You won’t get it perfect—but you’ll get a hell of a lot closer than last-click does.

The Upside You’re Missing

Once you model and measure correctly, demand-gen channels look very different.

Campaigns that seemed average suddenly look like rockstars. And you realize your growth engine wasn’t broken—it was just misattributed.

Many of these campaigns drive 2× to 4× more value than what last-click shows. I’ve seen it. I’ve fixed it. And so can you.

Final Takeaway

You won’t track everything. That’s reality. But you don’t have to settle for bad data either.

Track what you can. Model what you can’t. Apply logic. Use multipliers. Attribute smartly.

Stop making budget calls based on incomplete dashboards.
If you’ve been cutting demand-gen because “the numbers don’t add up”? It’s time to fix the equation.